Transform Newsletter 30th April 2025

 1st May 2025

Welcome to issue 23 of the Transform Newsletter. May Day greetings to all our readers, and solidarity with all workers who’ll be out on strike on May 1st.

Know Your Enemy: Reform UK

Tomorrow people will be going to the polls in 1,641 council seats, six mayoral elections, and the Runcorn & Helsby by-election. The next day’s headlines have already been written, and they’re going to be all about the rise of Reform UK.

What kind of a party really is Reform, and is it possible that Farage could become Prime Minister ?

A rich white men’s plaything

Formed in 2018 as the Brexit Party, it was renamed Reform UK in 2020. Its first leader, Catherine Blaiklock, stood down after it was revealed that she’d shared on social media a number of anti-Islam posts by the likes of Tommy Robinson and Mark Collett.

It was founded as a private limited company, with Farage its majority shareholder. Last year Farage announced that he’d be handing Reform over to its members, but the new constitution is designed to entrench his control over the party, making it almost impossible for members to remove leaders who they don’t like. It’s also emerged that the party is now owned by a not-for-profit company, Reform 2025, which has two directors: Farage and Zia Yusuf.

Despite pitching themselves as a party of the people, from day one Reform has been a rich white men’s plaything. Farage himself is privately educated, and a former commodities trader in the City of London. Deputy leader Richard Tice, also privately educated, is a multimillionaire businessman—a partner in property asset management company Quidnet Capital. And it’s Farage and Tice’s rich mates who bankroll the party. Last year, it took in £4.75 million in donations. Two thirds of this came from millionaires and multimillionaires; more than half from people with homes in low-tax jurisdictions or with offshore business interests; and 40% from those who have questioned climate change or have investments in fossil fuels.

What do Reform stand for ?

Immigration is front and centre of the Reform message. It could hardly be anything else, for a party with Farage as its leader. The appeal to people’s racist instincts is obvious and ever-present. Farage tries to tread a fine line, now and then taking action against members whose overt racism has become politically embarrassing. Earlier this month the press reported that NEU Conference was to debate a motion accusing “far-Right and racist organisations, including Reform” of scapegoating refugees, asylum seekers, Muslims and Jews. Farage hit back: “Reform is subject to endless propaganda at the hands of teachers. When we are in a position to do so, we will go to war against the teachers’ unions.”

In fact, for a party often described as populist, it’s striking how far their policies are shaped by their own far right beliefs rather than by what happens to be popular. They campaign strongly against Net Zero, even though the majority of the population are concerned about climate change and believe that Net Zero policies will bring long-term benefits. They’re sympathetic to racist rioters, parroting fascist claims about two-tier policing. Reform MPs voted against the Employment Rights Bill which would introduce protections at work for millions of people.

Some Reform policies, while being of little benefit to its millions of voters, are meat and drink to its millionaire backers: tax relief on private schools, raising the inheritance tax threshold for estates over £2 million, scrapping DEI rules.

Labour’s attacks on Reform in this campaign have focused on its plans for the NHS. And with good reason: there’s absolutely no doubt that a Reform government would extend privatisation within the NHS. At the same time, it’s hard to argue with Farage’s retort to this attack line, that Wes Streeting himself had been “saying very similar things” to him about funding the NHS.

Who are Reform’s supporters ?

Reform supporters tend to be racist, hostile to equalities and human rights, hostile to socialism, distrustful of the political system, of scientists, and of elites.

A survey by Lord Ashcroft found that two thirds of Reform voters in 2024 had voted Conservative in 2019. Only 7% had voted Labour. Moreover: “almost four out of five Reform voters were aged 45 and over, and three quarters said they decided to vote Reform only in the month before the election, confirming the significance of Farage’s decision to stand, which he announced on 3 June. Asked to identify the most important of 25 issues, 60%  of Reform voters picked “immigration/asylum seekers/migrants/travellers” compared with 16% of Tory and 2% of Labour voters.”

Reform is keen to establish itself as a mass membership party. And it’s certainly making big strides since the election, rapidly doubling its membership and overtaking the Tories as the “largest” right-wing party. But despite its success in promoting itself on platforms such as TikTok, its membership profile hasn’t shifted that much. Its support still predominantly comes from former Conservative voters, from people over 45, and from men rather than women.

No one knows how many fascists, conspiracy theorists, hardline racists and so on are included in their ranks. But there’s enough of them, along with their far right fellow-travellers, to create rifts in the party and cause headaches for Farage in his quest for electoral respectability.  

Is there a ceiling to Reform support ?

The combined Conservative/Reform vote has risen, but it’s remained under 50%. This is more or less consistent with historical trends: the combined vote for right wing parties has seldom been much higher than 50% in this country. What’s changed is that a large section of that vote has become radicalised, mirroring social changes that we’ve been seeing in Europe and in the USA. The experience of these countries shows that there’s still plenty of potential for Farage to pull more support away from the established parties, if the circumstances are favourable.

Will the Right unite ?

The idea of a Tory/Reform pact is a regular theme on GB News, and undeniably has some traction among supporters of both parties. Most recently Tees Valley mayor Ben Houchen called for a “coming together” of Tories and Reform. Robert Jenrick however, whose name had been linked with these calls, denied last week that he’s interested in doing any deals.

In truth, a merger seems unlikely in the foreseeable future. The battle between the Tories and Reform is more than a war between competing brands or competing egos – it’s a clash of ideologies. The possibility of an anti-Labour electoral pact can’t be entirely ruled out, but it’s difficult to see how this would work in practice, as any agreement as to who will stand where is likely to disproportionately benefit the Tories, who can point to their long record of past success in many areas.

Will Farage become PM ?

Projections of what might happen in a 2029 General Election are worthless. At most, they tell us which party is ahead at a particular moment in time. In reality it’s impossible to predict what will happen when there are so many parties polling at 10% or more, and when this doesn’t translate evenly into seats gained due to our deeply flawed First Past the Post voting system.

What we can say is this: in the space that Labour and the Tories occupied for so long, there is now a political vacuum. There’s a shortage of trust in politicians, and neither Starmer nor Badenoch seem capable of coming up with answers that people want to hear.

The threat from the far right is real, but we can put a stop to Reform’s rise. Not by doing what Starmer is doing – trying to out-Reform Reform on immigration policy, law and order and trans rights – but by building a political mass movement. By campaigning on the issues that matter, and showing people in practice that we and not Reform are on their side when it comes to defending the NHS, battling for affordable housing, a decent living wage, and so on. By producing thousands of leaflets and having thousands of conversations and gradually winning hearts and minds.

Who should we vote for on Thursday ?

Some people on the left are talking about voting Labour in the hope of stopping a Reform candidate from being elected.

This is the politics of despair. Propping up a party that is hammering the working class and sticking the boot into minorities won’t give people any hope and will do nothing to challenge the threat from the far right.

Instead, vote Left. And if you have the chance, vote for one of these candidates (all Independent unless otherwise indicated):

HERTFORDSHIRE

Gary Ruff standing for Transform Party in Hemel Hempstead Town

Email: transformhertfordshire@gmail.com

LEICESTERSHIRE

Ray Sutton in Castle Donington & Kegworth

Email: raysutton1000@gmail.com

LINCOLNSHIRE

Charmaine Morgan in Grantham South & John Morgan in Colsterworth Rural

Email: johnmorgan101@btinternet.com

NOTTINGHAMSHIRE

6 Broxtowe Alliance candidates in 5 Divisions:

Teresa Ann Cullen in Beeston Central & Rylands, Milan Radulovic in Eastwood, David Kirwan in Nuthall & Kimberley, Maggie McGrath in Stapleford & Broxtowe Central & Shaun Dannheimer and Stephen Jeremiah in Toton, Chilwell & Attenborough

Email: winning@broxtoweindependents.org.uk

OXFORDSHIRE

Cassi Bellingham in Banbury, Grimsbury & Castle, Simon Garrett in Banbury Hardwick, Julie Batterson in Banbury Ruscote & Philip Richards in Banbury Easington

Email: cassibelles@yahoo.co.uk

Jabu Nala-Hartley standing for Oxford Community Socialists in Barton, Sandhills & Risinghurst

Email: info@oxfordcommunitysocialists.org

Action call: Disability cuts

Transform’s campaigning focus for May 2025 will be on disability cuts. This Labour government is proposing the biggest cuts to disability benefits on record. Over 3 million families are set to lose out financially from changes to PIP and Universal Credit – and that’s according to the DWP. Labour’s claim that this is about getting more disabled people into work is an insult to our intelligence. As disability organisations have pointed out, this threatens to remove from some disabled people access to the kinds of support that they need to enable them to work.

The Green Paper is open for public consultation and we have until 30th June to respond. Disability Rights UK have published some useful links here, including links to the consultation, and to a model letter to MPs.

Transform’s Eric Jarvis has written the piece below, which provides invaluable historical context.

Thirty Years of Dirty Deeds

At the beginning of this sorry tale we had an efficient system called Incapacity Benefit, in which long term sick and disabled people were given a thorough medical examination by a doctor employed by the Department of Social Security, to decide if they were capable of work, and how long it would be before their health would need to be assessed again. There was almost no fraud, and almost no decisions made were appealed. How then did we get to a situation where claimants are being asked annually whether their amputated leg has grown back, huge numbers of benefit decisions are going to Tribunals and overturned at huge cost, and tens of thousands of people have died unnecessarily?

In October 1994 Peter Lilley, secretary of state for social security, hired John LoCascio, Vice President of US insurance company UNUM Insurance, to advise the UK government on how to reduce the number of claimants of long-term sickness benefits. UNUM were among the largest providers of income protection insurance in the world with a long tradition of fraudulently failing to pay out on claims. This was basically the key starting point for what has happened since.

The other key figure in this story is the late Professor Sir Mansel Aylward. From 1996 to April 2005, Aylward was Chief Medical Adviser, Medical Director and Chief Scientist of the DWP. He and his wife have a long record of working with the income protection insurance industry. In 1995 he had co-authored a paper with John LoCascio which argued that GPs should be side-lined from advising on claimants’ fitness for work. For many years he also headed the UNUM Provident Centre for Psychosocial and Disability Research, at Cardiff University. There he worked alongside Professor Gordon Waddell to produce a new biopsychosocial model of health that without any solid peer-reviewed evidence purports that a majority of sick or disabled people are making a personal choice to be ill and would be healthier if they just chose not to behave as if they were sick or disabled. All of that funded by an insurance company renowned for fraudulently refusing to pay out on insurance claims.

A key event was the Malingering and Illness Deception Meeting on 6th-8th November 2001, a conference held in Woodstock near Oxford, and attended by Aylward, LoCascio, along with government ministers and DWP civil servants. Although UNUM had for many years been spending large sums of money on seminars and briefings at political party conferences to sell their ideas to UK politicians, it is the Woodstock Conference that really marks the acceptance of Aylward and Waddell’s junk science as the consensus for political and civil service decision making around sickness and disability benefits.

Space prohibits me from giving further details here of how revolving doors between UNUM, Atos, the DWP, and successive governments have led to what can only be seen as a total corruption of the benefit system. However I can recommend everybody look at the work done by Mo Stewart, Tom Shakespeare, Black Triangle, Private Eye, and Disability News Service, to bring all of this to public notice.

The essential thing to keep in mind is that since the mid 90s, changes made to the UK’s benefits system have been almost entirely based on increasing profits for some large multinational companies and generating income for politicians and political parties, with the stated aims of cutting costs and bringing sick and disabled people back into the workforce not really getting a look in. What we really need is to throw out this corrupt political system which is killing some people and fleecing others, while our politicians, established parties, and their “generous corporate donors” laugh all the way to the bank.

Supreme Court ruling

The Supreme Court ruling that the legal definition of woman is based on “biological sex” casts a dark shadow over the UK’s commitment to inclusion and human rights.

Bastions of white male privilege like the Times newspaper hailed the judgment as a victory for women. It’s nothing of the kind. There’s no evidence that making it more difficult for trans people to live their lives in their true gender will make a single woman any safer. The judgment has, on the other hand, had the immediate effect of legitimising ignorant and prejudiced attitudes toward trans people, inevitably leading to more abuse, harassment, and discrimination.

You’ve all seen Pastor Niemöller’s poem. We can’t be silent about this injustice. Please protest in any way that you can, and reach out to your trans and non-binary friends to let them know that support is always there. For a list of upcoming protests and other ways in which you can take action, please check out this page.

Report from Brussels

Transform’s Doug Thorpe and Anwarul Khan were in Brussels on Saturday attending the General Assembly of the European Left. Doug reports:

The General Assembly is the highest body of the European Left Party between its Congresses (which happen every three years). It’s a joint meeting of its Executive Board and leaders of its national member parties, representing 40 radical left, socialist, and communist parties across Europe.

The Assembly discussed a paper that had been drafted by the Presidency, on peace, militarism and an alternative framework for security of the people of Europe. Numerous parties contributed to the debate and there was a lot of common agreement around the broad slogan “NO, to war policies and austerity. YES, to common security, social and ecological transformation.”

Reports were received on the European Left housing campaign, Peace Initiative and actions, Summer University, international relations, finances, and working groups.

Work has already begun to prepare for the next Party Congress, which will be in the first quarter of 2026. The Assembly adopted some agreed changes to the statutes (constitution) including listing Transform as an observer party in the statutes.

Two parties were confirmed as new members: the Workers Party of Belgium (PTB-PVDA) and Nea Aristera from Greece. The PTB-PVDA hosted a big reception at its party headquarters on Saturday evening.

As well as the formal sessions, it was an opportunity to socialize with and talk to activists from a variety of left parties, most of whom are well ahead of us in Britain in organising left political parties, and from whom we can learn and share experiences.

Organising the Independents

Left Independent Councillors from different parts of the country have been connecting in recent months via WhatsApp. On Saturday they held an online event, Building Solidarity Amongst Independent Councillors. Khalid Sadur has given the Newsletter this exclusive report:

The Collective ran an online event for Independent Councillors on 26th April. Attendees included Councillors who had left the Labour party to go independent, those elected as Independents, and also candidates campaigning under an Independent banner.

Jeremy Corbyn opened the panel discussion and pointed to the pressing issues currently being faced such as inadequate housing. and the need for councillors working locally to help advocate on these issues. He stressed the importance of building a strong local base to go alongside a wider national movement.

Noor Jehan Begum (Redbridge and Ilford Independents), who recently beat Labour in a council by-election then spoke of her experience in standing and stressed the need to build local groups which could contest future elections.

Alan Gibbons (Liverpool Community Independents) spoke on leaving Labour and the need to actively engage with the local community. He stressed the importance of casework and replying to queries as a means of showing that we’re different from mainstream parties where most councillors are invisible to the community.

There followed breakout groups discussing how Independents could differentiate themselves from other parties, which focused not only on policies and principles but also on how to engage (eg with the use of local assemblies).

Overall, a very informative event, especially for prospective councillors and something to build upon for those areas with elections in May 2026.

Calendar of Events

15th May Nakba Day Workplace Day of Action for Palestine

Trade unionists are being asked to take action in your own workplaces to demand an end to government and corporate complicity in Israel’s atrocities, call for a permanent ceasefire and justice for Palestine, and mobilise for the national march.

17th May National Demonstration Nakba 77

National march for Palestine in central London.

21st May Mass lobby against benefit cuts

You’ll need to be able to get to Westminster by Wednesday lunch time to join this lobby of MPs sponsored by several disability organisations.

14th June Merseyside Independents Rally

In central Liverpool. Tickets are going fast.

Call for Volunteers

Transform’s Comms Team is calling for volunteers. The Comms team is responsible for amplifying the party’s messaging through press & media, our own social media, our YouTube channel, leaflets etc. If any of this sounds like you, why not come and join us. Team meetings are every few weeks on Zoom. We particularly welcome applications from those with experience of recording and editing videos, or of graphic design.

To volunteer, email info@transformpolitics.uk (Transform members only).

Next Newsletter

The next newsletter will be out on Wednesday 21st May. Is there anything that you want us to cover ? Tell us about it, and send us your reports and your photos. You can contact us at any time at info@transformpolitics.uk: please mark your email for the attention of the Newsletter Team.

In solidarity,

Transform Newsletter Team